ETH Aims For $4.5K Just Days After Historic Flash Crash

Key takeaways:

• ETH’s perpetual contract distortions are fading, with monthly futures signaling neutral conditions and reduced short-term market fear.

• Options markets show balanced demand between bullish and bearish strategies, reflecting a healthy derivatives market.

• ETH outperformed most altcoins during the crash and the following 48 hours, reinforcing its relative strength and bullish momentum.

Ether (ETH) price reclaimed the $4,100 level on Sunday, easing some of the pain from Friday’s sharp 20.7% flash crash. The $3.82 billion in leveraged long liquidations left a lasting mark on ETH derivatives markets, but four factors suggest that Ether’s rebound from the $3,750 support may have ended this short-term correction.

The funding rate on ETH perpetual futures plunged to -14%, meaning short (bearish) traders are paying to keep their positions open, an unsustainable condition over extended periods. This unusual setup likely reflects growing fears that certain market makers or even exchanges could be facing solvency issues. Whether those concerns have merit or not, traders typically act with greater caution until confidence is fully restored.

ETH derivatives signal return to normalcy despite marketwide uncertainty

Uncertainty persists over whether exchanges will reimburse clients for mismanagement tied to cross-collateral margin and oracle pricing. Binance has so far announced $283 million in compensation and indicated that other cases remain under review.

Traders are likely to remain cautious until a detailed post-mortem has been issued. Wrapped tokens and synthetic stablecoins experienced the steepest parity losses, causing traders’ margins to fall up to 50% within minutes.

ETH monthly futures absorbed the shock in less than two hours, quickly regaining the minimum 5% premium required for a neutral market. Therefore, the lack of demand for leveraged long positions in perpetual contracts likely reflects weak product design rather than strong bearish sentiment.

This distortion in the derivatives market may persist until market makers regain confidence, a process that could take weeks or even months, and should not be viewed as a bearish signal for ETH’s momentum. 

Ether options markets on Deribit showed no signs of stress or unusual demand for bearish strategies. Trading volumes over the weekend remained normal, and activity in put (sell) options was slightly lower than in call (buy) options, signaling a balanced and healthy market.

This data helps ease concerns about a coordinated cryptocurrency market crash. A sharp rise in options volume would likely have occurred if traders had been anticipating a major price drop. Therefore, whatever triggered the cascading liquidations and instability in ETH derivatives markets has caught traders entirely off guard.

ETH historical performance, spot ETFs and derivatives distance themselves from competitors

More importantly, a handful of major altcoins experienced intraday corrections far deeper than Ether’s 20.7%, including the extreme cases of SUI (SUI) at 84%, Avalanche (AVAX) at 70%, and Cardano (ADA) down 66%. Ether has fallen 5% in the past 48 hours, while most competitors remain roughly 10% below their pre-crash levels.

Related: Explanations of USDe ‘depeg’ on Binance focus on coordinated attack, oracles

Ether’s decoupling from the broader altcoin market highlights the strength provided by its $23.5 billion in spot exchange-traded funds and $15.5 billion in open interest on options markets. Even if Solana (SOL) and other rivals enter the spot ETF race, Ether’s established network effects and resilience during volatile periods continue to make it the top altcoin choice for institutional capital.

Ether’s outlook remains strong as confidence in derivatives structures gradually returns, supporting a potential recovery toward the $4,500 resistance level.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.